The identifiability of parameters in a water quality model of the Biebrza River, Poland   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Marcel van der Perk  Marc F. P. Bierkens 《Journal of Hydrology》1997,200(1-4):307-322

The identifiability of model parameters of a steady state water quality model of the Biebrza River and the resulting variation in model results was examined by applying the Monte Carlo method which combines calibration, identifiability analysis, uncertainty analysis, and sensitivity analysis. The water quality model simulates the steady state concentration profiles of chloride, phosphate, ammonium, and nitrate as a function of distance along a river. The water quality model with the best combination of parameter values simulates the observed concentrations very well. However, the range of possible modelled concentrations obtained for other more or less equally eligible combinations of parameter values is rather wide. This range in model outcomes reflects possible errors in the model parameters. Discrepancies between the range in model outcomes and the validation data set are only caused by errors in model structure, or (measurement) errors in boundary conditions or input variables. In this sense the validation procedure is a test of model capability, where the effects of calibration errors are filtered out. It is concluded that, despite some slight deviations between model outcome and observations, the model is successful in simulating the spatial pattern of nutrient concentrations in the Biebrza River.  相似文献   

Multivariate nonparametric resampling scheme for generation of daily weather variables     

B. Rajagopalan  U. Lall  D. G. Tarboton  D. S. Bowles 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1997,11(1):65-93

A nonparametric resampling technique for generating daily weather variables at a site is presented. The method samples the original data with replacement while smoothing the empirical conditional distribution function. The technique can be thought of as a smoothed conditional Bootstrap and is equivalent to simulation from a kernel density estimate of the multivariate conditional probability density function. This improves on the classical Bootstrap technique by generating values that have not occurred exactly in the original sample and by alleviating the reproduction of fine spurious details in the data. Precipitation is generated from the nonparametric wet/dry spell model as described in Lall et al. [1995]. A vector of other variables (solar radiation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, average dew point temperature, and average wind speed) is then simulated by conditioning on the vector of these variables on the preceding day and the precipitation amount on the day of interest. An application of the resampling scheme with 30 years of daily weather data at Salt Lake City, Utah, USA, is provided.  相似文献   

Stochastic Modelling of the Impact of Flood Protection Measures Along the River Waal in the Netherlands     

Saskia Van Vuren  Huib J. De. Vriend  Sonja Ouwerkerk  Matthijs Kok 《Natural Hazards》2005,36(1-2):81-102

River flooding is a problem of international interest. In the past few years many countries suffered from severe floods. A large part of the Netherlands is below sea level and river levels. The Dutch flood defences along the river Rhine are designed for water levels with a probability of exceedance of 1/1250 per year. These water levels are computed with a hydrodynamic model using a deterministic bed level and a deterministic design discharge. Traditionally, the safety against flooding in the Netherlands is obtained by building and reinforcing dikes. Recently, a new policy was proposed to cope with increasing design discharges in the Rhine and Meuse rivers. This policy is known as the Room for the River (RfR) policy, in which a reduction of flood levels is achieved by measures creating space for the river, such as dike replacement, side channels and floodplain lowering. As compared with dike reinforcement, these measures may have a stronger impact on flow and sediment transport fields, probably leading to stronger morphological effects. As a result of the latter the flood conveyance capacity may decrease over time. An a priori judgement of safety against flooding on the basis of an increased conveyance capacity of the river can be quite misleading. Therefore, the determination of design water levels using a fixed-bed hydrodynamic model may not be justified and the use of a mobile-bed approach may be more appropriate. This problem is addressed in this paper, using a case study of the river Waal (one of the Rhine branches in the Netherlands). The morphological response of the river Waal to a flood protection measure (floodplain lowering in combination with summer levee removal) is analysed. The effect of this measure is subject to various sources of uncertainty. Monte Carlo simulations are applied to calculate the impact of uncertainties in the river discharge on the bed levels. The impact of the “uncertain” morphological response on design flood level predictions is analysed for three phenomena, viz. the impact of the spatial morphological variation over years, the impact of the seasonal morphological variation and the impact of the morphological variability around bifurcation points. The impact of seasonal morphological variations turns out to be negligible, but the other two phenomena appear to have each an appreciable impact (order of magnitude 0.05–0.1 m) on the computed design water levels. We have to note however, that other sources of uncertainty (e.g. uncertainty in hydraulic roughness predictor), which may be of influence, are not taken into consideration. In fact, the present investigation is limited to the sensitivity of the design water levels to uncertainties in the predicted bed level.  相似文献   

Improving the prediction of extreme FPSO hawser tension,using another highly correlated hawser tension with a longer time record     

《Applied Ocean Research》2019

The floating production storage and offloading unit (FPSO) is an offshore vessel that produces and stores crude oil prior to tanker transport. Robust prediction of extreme hawser tensions during the FPSO offloading operation is an important safety concern. Excessive hawser tension may occur during certain sea conditions, posing an operational risk. In this paper, the finite element method (FEM) software ANSYS AQWA has been employed to analyze vessel response due to hydrodynamic wave loads, acting on a specific FPSO vessel under actual sea conditions.In some practical situations, it would be useful to improve the accuracy of some statistical predictions based on a certain stochastic random process, given another synchronous highly correlated stochastic process that has been measured for a longer time, than the process of interest. In this paper, the issue of improving extreme value prediction has been addressed. In other words, an efficient transfer of information is necessary between two synchronous, highly correlated stochastic processes. Two such highly correlated FPSO hawser tension processes were simulated in order to test the efficiency of the proposed technique.  相似文献   

量子无线通信技术在海洋环境监测中的应用     

李浩  任宇辉  刘凤娇 《海洋科学》2018,42(2):94-98

以量子技术为基础,利用光子基本粒子的量子纠缠原理,由量子态携带在线实时海洋环境监测数据信息,构建基于量子无线通信的海洋环境监测系统。该系统在无线通信中可确保数据的安全性、系统性、及时性和准确性,提高信息化和灵活化水平,可为海洋环境规划、环境管理、环境治理等提供全面安全可靠的监测数据。  相似文献   

与找矿信息量法结合的含矿网格单元蒙特卡洛矿产资源潜力评价方法的原理及应用     

浦路平  朱国器  尹意求  林锦富 《矿产与地质》2016,(3):490-495

文章介绍了以含矿网格单元为统计单位、并与找矿信息量法结合的蒙特卡洛矿产资源潜力评价方法的原理和工作步骤,以及用该法进行丹池锡多金属成矿带锡矿矿产资源潜力评价工作案例,表明该法可以把评价工作区的矿产空间分布信息、成矿模式和找矿模型、成矿-找矿空间信息引入蒙特卡洛方法中,无需人类专家估计矿床个数,减少了工作步骤,提高了工作效率和自动化程度,减少了因人为主观性而造成的评价误差。  相似文献   

Structural stability of gravity dams: a progressive assessment considering uncertainties in shear strength parameters     

Mathilde Cordier 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2018,12(2):109-122

Structural sliding stability of gravity dams is generally quantified using deterministic factor of safety, FS_det. Large FS_det (e.g. 3 in normal condition), are used in existing guidelines to guard against material and load uncertainties. Some guidelines allow an arbitrary reduction in FS_det (e.g. 2) when the knowledge in strength parameters increases from material test data. Yet, those reduced FS_det are not based on a rational consideration of uncertainties. Propagation of uncertainties could be done using probabilistic analyses, such as Monte-Carlo simulations (MC) which are complex and challenging for practical use. There is thus a need to develop simplified reliability based safety assessment procedures that could rationalise the adjustment of FS_det. This paper presents a progressive analysis methodology using four safety evaluation formats of increasing complexity: (i) deterministic, (ii) semi-probabilistic (partial coefficient), (iii) reliability based Adjustable Factor of Safety (AFS), and (iv) probabilistic. Comprehensive comparisons are made for the sliding safety evaluation of a 80 m gravity dam. Results are presented in terms of sliding factors of safety, allowable water levels, and demand/capacity ratios. It is shown that the AFS formulation, using direct integration, is simple and practical to use in complement to existing dam safety guidelines before undertaking MC simulations.  相似文献   

Consolidation in spatially random unsaturated soils based on coupled flow‐deformation simulation          下载免费PDF全文

Y. Cheng  L.L. Zhang  J.H. Li  L.M. Zhang  J.H. Wang  D.Y. Wang 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2017,41(5):682-706

This paper integrates random field simulation of soil spatial variability with numerical modeling of coupled flow and deformation to investigate consolidation in spatially random unsaturated soil. The spatial variability of soil properties is simulated using the covariance matrix decomposition method. The random soil properties are imported into an interactive multiphysics software COMSOL to solve the governing partial differential equations. The effects of the spatial variability of Young's modulus and saturated permeability together with unsaturated hydraulic parameters on the dissipation of excess pore water pressure and settlement are investigated using an example of consolidation in a saturated‐unsaturated soil column because of loading. It is found that the surface settlement and the pore water pressure profile during the process of consolidation are significantly affected by the spatially varying Young's modulus. The mean value of the settlement of the spatially random soil is more than 100% greater than that of the deterministic case, and the surface settlement is subject to large uncertainty, which implies that consolidation settlement is difficult to predict accurately based on the conventional deterministic approach. The uncertainty of the settlement increases with the scale of fluctuation because of the averaging effect of spatial variability. The effects of spatial variability of saturated permeability k_sat and air entry parameters are much less significant than that of elastic modulus. The spatial variability of air entry value parameters affects the uncertainties of settlement and excess pore pressure mostly in the unsaturated zone. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Stage level,volume and time‐frequency information content of Lake Tana using stochastic and wavelet analysis methods     

Y. Chebud  A. Melesse 《水文研究》2013,27(10):1475-1483

Lake Tana is the largest fresh water body situated in the north‐western highlands of Ethiopia. In addition to its ecological services, it serves for local transport, electric power generation, fishing, recreational purposes, and source of dry season irrigation water supply. Evidence shows that the lake has dried at least once at about 15,000–17,000 before present owing to a combination of high evaporation and low precipitation events. Past attempts to understand and simulate historical fluctuation of Lake Tana based on simplistic water balance approach of inflow, outflow, and storage have failed to capture well‐known events of drawdown and rise of the lake that have happened in the last 44 years. This study tested different stochastic methods of lake level and volume simulation for supporting Lake Tana operational planning decision support. Three stochastic methods (perturbations approach, Monte Carlo methods, and wavelet analysis) were employed for lake level and volume simulation, and the results were compared with the stage level measurements. Forty‐four years of daily, monthly, and mean annual lake level data have shown a Gaussian variation with goodness of fit at 0.01 significant levels of the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test. The stochastic simulations predicted the lake stage level of the 1972, 1984, and 2002/2003 historical droughts 99% of the time. The information content (frequency) of fluctuation of Lake Tana for various periods was resolved using Wigner's Time‐Frequency Decomposition method. The wavelet analysis agreed with the perturbations and Monte Carlo simulations resolving the time (1970s, 1980s, and 2000s) in which low frequency and high spectral power fluctuation has occurred. The Monte Carlo method has shown its superiority for risk analysis over perturbation and deterministic method whereas wavelet analysis reconstructed historical record of lake stage level at daily and monthly time scales. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Assessing uncertainties in a conceptual water balance model using Bayesian methodology / Estimation bayésienne des incertitudes au sein d’une modélisation conceptuelle de bilan hydrologique     

《水文科学杂志》2013,58(1)

Abstract

Abstract The aim of this study was to estimate the uncertainties in the streamflow simulated by a rainfall–runoff model. Two sources of uncertainties in hydrological modelling were considered: the uncertainties in model parameters and those in model structure. The uncertainties were calculated by Bayesian statistics, and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm was used to simulate the posterior parameter distribution. The parameter uncertainty calculated by the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm was compared to maximum likelihood estimates which assume that both the parameters and model residuals are normally distributed. The study was performed using the model WASMOD on 25 basins in central Sweden. Confidence intervals in the simulated discharge due to the parameter uncertainty and the total uncertainty were calculated. The results indicate that (a) the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and the maximum likelihood method give almost identical estimates concerning the parameter uncertainty, and (b) the uncertainties in the simulated streamflow due to the parameter uncertainty are less important than uncertainties originating from other sources for this simple model with fewer parameters.  相似文献